Traffic & revenue due diligence for the six-lane Ganga expressway

At 594 km long, the access-controlled six-lane greenfield Ganga Expressway is India's largest project of its kind to achieve financial closure.

The Uttar Pradesh Expressways Industrial Development Authority (UPEIDA) invited tenders to build the new expressway. Adani Roads Transport Limited commissioned Steer for the pre- and post-bid support on traffic and revenue due diligence for the expressway.

The bids were invited for four packages or sections of the expressway. When finished, the expressway is expected to reduce the travel time between Delhi and Prayagraj by about half, from 10 to 12 hours to 6 to 7 hours.

How we helped

For Phase One of the project, the pre-bid stage, we conducted detailed traffic and revenue due diligence for the proposed expressway. The following factors contributed to the uniqueness and complexity of the project:

• Due to the expressway's greenfield status, no existing data was available to study travel patterns. So, in order to make sure our base was robust, we collected data from 25 locations across the network.
• The route of the expressway is already part of a complicated and dense network of roads. This meant that we had to use state-of-the-art network modelling software to analyse the movement patterns accurately.
• Since the expressway would use a closed tolling system, we needed to investigate and forecast the precise entry and exit points for traffic based on their origin-destination data.

Phase One of the study required complex data processing and a detailed forecasting approach in order to offer solid, reliable traffic and revenue projections.

In Phase Two, when the client won three out of four packages, we supported them in defending our analysis and forecasts to lenders in order to help them achieve financial closure.

Success and outcomes

Our highly detailed traffic and revenue due diligence contributed to our client winning 80% section of the greenfield expressway.

We also supported the client in defending the projections to lenders and helped them bring the project to a close financially.